China’s Reaction to Iran Conflict Looms Larger if West Falters, Not if Tehran Falls
Experts told Fox News Digital that China’s influence in the Middle East may be overstated, especially as Iran, a key ally of Beijing, faces potential collapse due to its terror-supporting regime. Steve Yates, a senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation, noted that China has long been a critical player in Iran’s energy market, which is heavily sanctioned by the U.S. and Western nations.
By shielding Iran from these sanctions, often discreetly, China has kept Iran’s energy sector afloat, countering Western efforts to isolate Tehran over proliferation and other concerns. However, Yates said it’s unclear how Iran’s possible downfall might impact U.S.-China relations, though China’s economic dependence on the U.S. could make President Xi Jinping cautious about escalating involvement in the region.
Gordon Chang, a Gatestone Institute senior fellow and expert on U.S.-China relations, argued that China lacks the military capacity to project significant power in the Middle East. With only a small base in Djibouti, surrounded by Western forces, and limited naval capabilities compared to Western navies, Beijing is unlikely to launch a major offensive even if Iran collapses. Chang compared the current geopolitical landscape to the pre-World War I era, where unclear alliances and rapid diplomatic shifts created instability. He emphasized the fluid nature of the situation, making predictions difficult.
Chang also highlighted domestic challenges for Xi Jinping, suggesting that internal political struggles, including potential loss of control over the Chinese military, could overshadow Beijing’s concerns about Iran. Speculation about Xi’s leadership—whether he might be ousted, reduced to a figurehead, or maintain power—further complicates China’s foreign policy calculations. Chang noted that China’s view of its interests often diverges from Western assumptions, as Beijing does not prioritize supporting the global order.
However, Chang warned that if the U.S. or Israel fail to neutralize Iran’s nuclear program, China might perceive Western weakness, potentially emboldening it to pursue aggressive actions against regional neighbors like South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, or the Philippines. With ongoing conflicts in Europe (Ukraine-Russia), Asia (Pakistan-India skirmishes), and insurgencies in North Africa resembling wars, Chang cautioned that one more major conflict could tip the world into a global war, resembling World War III.